How the US midterm elections affect Europe and science
Even if the Republicans appear to be heading for a defeat in next Tuesday’s midterm elections, American scientists and progressive Europeans should not get their hopes up just yet. According to Jack Thompson, a lecturer in American Studies, even in such a scenario, President Donald Trump would still have plenty of room to maintain his confrontational stance towards Europe, if not intensify it.
“The American political system was never really designed to deal with such an unpredictable factor like Donald Trump,” sighs Jack Thompson, a lecturer in American Studies at the UvA, halfway through the interview. Despite this unpredictability, Thompson, whose research focuses primarily on US foreign policy and the radicalisation of the American right, looks ahead to the potential consequences of the upcoming US midterm elections.
In the United States, midterm elections are held halfway through the president’s four-year term. During these elections, all members of the House of Representatives and around a third of the members of the Senate are elected. Congress, which consists of these two chambers, is broadly comparable to the Dutch House of Representatives and Senate and holds legislative power.
Would it be accurate to describe the upcoming midterm elections as a kind of referendum on Trump’s presidency?
“That depends on whether you’re asking me as an election specialist or as a scientist. As a scientist, I have to say no: these elections have nothing to do with Trump. People are electing members of Congress and Trump himself isn’t on the ballot.”
“At the same time, of course, Trump’s popularity has a huge impact on what is likely to happen in these elections. His approval ratings are at historically low levels. That’s why experts expect the Democrats to have a good night.”
What would it mean politically if the Republicans were to lose control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate?
“At the moment, because the Republicans have a majority in Congress, Trump can theoretically do whatever he wants. But if the Democrats win a majority in both the House and the Senate, Congress as a whole would turn against the president. It would then become very difficult to get anything done in terms of legislation.”
One area in which Trump would retain considerable power, even if the Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress, is foreign policy and the use of military force. How much freedom does a US president actually have to deploy military force or change the country’s foreign policy without congressional approval?
“In theory, Congress and the president share the power in this area, but in practice, it is much easier for the president to exercise that power. Take the war in Iran, which has been going on for months. Congress has never formally signed a declaration of war, but the reality is that, in the short term, the president can do whatever he wants.”
“If Trump wanted to bomb Canada tomorrow, for example, Congress could do nothing to stop him in the short term. So even if the Democrats win majorities in both the House and the Senate on Tuesday, they would have little impact on foreign policy.”
Could a defeat in the midterm elections prompt Trump to escalate international conflicts further or adopt an even more confrontational approach abroad, given the considerable freedom of action he would retain in that area?
“There is a view that when a president finds it difficult to get much done domestically during the final two years of his term because of disappointing midterm results, he turns his attention more towards foreign affairs. With Greenland, Venezuela and Iran, we have already seen Trump pursue a highly aggressive foreign policy, so it is entirely possible that he could become even more extreme in this regard if he faces domestic frustration.”
What impact could such a scenario have on Europe?
“It is very difficult to predict exactly how Trump would behave in such a scenario. Even now, he is striking a diesel deal with Putin behind closed doors and urging Ukraine to elect a different president.”
“Although Trump’s behaviour seems to have made Europe realise that it needs a fundamentally different relationship with the United States, there is not much Europe can do to deter him. The Democrats, if they win majorities in both the House and the Senate, could, for example, pass a bill providing funding for Ukraine. However, the president can veto it, and overriding such a veto requires a very large number of members of Congress to support the bill. So it would not be easy for the Democrats to oppose Trump either.”
When it comes to domestic policy, the Democrats are likely to be able to exert more influence if the election results go their way. In that case, would universities and scientists come under less pressure?
“It could be that the worst is over for universities, but I think that has more to do with the fact that many Americans who applauded Trump when he attacked science have come to see the culture war as less important. People are now mainly concerned with the economy and gas prices, so Trump has little to gain from turning his sights on universities again.”
“But it is not as though a Democrat-controlled Congress could simply stop him. In the short term, Trump could theoretically continue to act very aggressively towards universities, for example by threatening to withdraw federal funding.”
So a Democratic majority would not necessarily represent a symbolic victory for science in the United States?
“Perhaps in the long term. But you also have to realise that a considerable proportion of Democratic senators are very moderate and centrist. They are quite conservative, particularly on cultural issues. They certainly won’t all be eager to fight hard for more funding for universities. Even with a Democratic majority, you shouldn’t expect a wave of progressive legislation.”
Since the start of the Trump administration, some American scientists have moved to the Netherlands and other European countries. Could the outcome of these midterm elections influence American researchers’ decisions about whether to stay in the United States or move to Europe to continue their research?
“If there were a Democratic-controlled Congress that constantly challenged the Trump administration and adopted a less hostile message towards academics, that could influence the overall vibe. If I had to guess, I would expect fewer high profile American scientists to move abroad as a result.”
On Monday 2 November, Jack Thompson will speak at Spui25 at an event looking ahead to the US midterm elections. You can register here.
