Han van der Maas | Dutch education is probably doing quite well
There is plenty of grumbling about the quality of Dutch education, but there is no need for it, argues our columnist Han van der Maas. “Spelling is sorted, taken care of by computers. Mental arithmetic was already a thing of the past when the calculator was introduced.”
According to all manner of studies and a constant stream of news reports, Dutch education is in a sorry state. Newspapers speak of plummeting scores and an education crisis. The inspectorate gives twenty per cent of schools a failing grade, and PISA scoresThe Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is a triennial international survey conducted by the OECD to assess the skills of 15-year-old students in mathematics, science and reading. are indeed continuing to fall. One in three young people is said to be illiterate.
Explanations and solutions are coming thick and fast. It is down to teaching methods, parents who no longer bring up their children properly, teachers who cannot do maths themselves, work pressure, TikTok, AI, neoliberalism, immigration or a general lack of interest in real knowledge. What is striking is that everyone, from experts to letter-writers, is very sure of themselves and usually endorses just one cause and one solution. That is strange for three reasons.
Limited reliability
Firstly, we are not at all certain that Dutch education is actually in such a bad state. PISA, and this also applies to other international comparative tests, are only of limited reliability and validity. This is not because the people behind these tests are doing a poor job, but because measuring and comparing educational performance internationally is extremely difficult. Cito itself reports that the rankings, in which the Netherlands consistently falls, have a significant margin of uncertainty.
Moreover, since 2003, when the Netherlands was at the top, twice as many countries now take part. Nor is the decline in absolute scores absolute. The psychometrics of test comparison, which is somewhat my field of expertise, does not guarantee that tests remain equally difficult over the years. It is also well known that the motivation with which pupils take part in the PISA test has a major impact. Dutch fifteen-year-olds regard the test as low-stakes: there is nothing at stake. PISA also asks pupils themselves how seriously they take the test. East Asian countries consistently score higher on this than Western European ones.
1971
In any given decade over the last 150 years, you can find reports about the decline of Dutch education. I previously wrote a column (in Dutch) about young people’s spelling problems. In 1971, it turned out that only twelve per cent of the oldest primary school pupils had mastered the basic spelling rules. That does not fit with any of the current explanations, which all assume that everything used to be better. We simply do not know whether today’s pupils spell even worse than the pupils of 1971, who are now retiring.
The situation is equally confusing when it comes to science subjects such as physics and mathematics. Here too, PISA scores have deteriorated, yet marks in the national final exams have risen. According to a (Dutch) McKinsey report , these exams have gradually become easier. The proportion of HAVO and VWO pupils has risen, and more pupils than ever are pursuing higher education.
Shallow lakes
Secondly, there is never just one explanation or one solution for complex social issues. Surely there is room for improvement in education, but not by attributing everything to a single cause. In complex systems such as our education system, there is usually a complex interplay of factors, whereby knowing the cause does not automatically lead to an effective solution. A famous example of the decoupling of cause and solution comes from ecological research into shallow lakes.
Shallow lakes often have two stable states: a clear, healthy state and a turbid state, with the transition occurring suddenly at a critical phosphorus load. These transitions are accompanied by hysteresis. This means that a return to clear water does not simply occur by reducing the cause (phosphorus), but because the tipping points are too far apart. A breakthrough came when virtually all the fish were removed, after which the system spontaneously returned to a stable, clear state without the original cause being directly addressed.
Dyscalculia
Thirdly, even if the arithmetic and spelling skills of today’s youth are declining, that is no social disaster. Mental arithmetic and spelling have long ceased to be serious learning objectives. Spelling is sorted, taken care of by computers. Mental arithmetic was already sorted when the calculator was introduced. At best, the emphasis on these skills is educational folklore, but one that has resulted in an epidemic of diagnoses of dyslexia and dyscalculia.
The 21st century began some time ago, yet many of our educational objectives still date from the last century. I do understand the demotivation felt by many pupils in primary and secondary education, and all the more so when they have to sit a test like PISA that counts for nothing. As for the question of what exactly those learning objectives should be, I am still unable to provide an answer. But it is indeed the key question.
Han van der Maas is a professor of psychological methodology.
