UvA research: Seven out of eight limits of the Earth have already been exceeded
Man has already exceeded almost all of the planet’s limits, a group of international scientists led by UvA professor Joyeeta Gupta concluded last week in the scientific journal Nature. This included (social) justice in climate research for the first time. “I see this as the empowerment of justice in science.”
Seven of the Earth’s eight limits have already been exceeded, an international team of scientists led by UvA professor of sustainability Joyeeta Gupta stated last week in Nature. Only the limit for air quality has not yet been exceeded on a global level, although locally it has been exceeded in many places. Last week, Gupta et al.’s research made world news.
The idea of planetary boundaries was introduced in 2009 by Swedish scientist Johan Rockström. It was based on nine systems. The classification has since been modified somewhat and scientists now distinguish eight Earth systems crucial for the survival of life on Earth such as climate change, water, and biodiversity. If the boundaries of these nine systems are exceeded, this results in so-called tipping points, after which the damage becomes irreversible.
Climate change will soon exceed the 1.5-degree warming limit, a threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement. Why is it important to look at other planetary boundaries as well?
“Climate is just one of the systems that affect the earth. Climate change has huge impacts on other systems such as water and biodiversity. The earth is like a body with different organs: all those organs are interconnected. To cure the patient, you must look not just at one of these systems, but at the whole body.”
Many alarming climate reports have appeared. What makes this report different?
“The new aspect of this report is that we have added (social) justice to climate research. Previous reports focused mainly on the collapse of nature on Earth, but humans will die long before that. With this report, we succeeded for the first time in publishing a full article on justice research in a leading journal like Nature. Normally, research on justice appears only as a commentary or opinion article. This research shows the emancipation of justice in science.”
What do you mean by justice in climate change?
“The effects of climate change are felt most strongly in poorer countries. That’s where most of the extreme weather events, floods, and earthquakes take place. At this point, we as humankind seem to have accepted that it is OK for tens of millions of people to be victims of climate change. We would therefore also like to introduce the aspect of justice into the discussion of what is acceptable when it comes to climate change worldwide.”
The report “Safe and just Earth system boundaries“ published last Wednesday in Nature is part of a series of reports by the Earth Commission: an international team of scientists. In the fall of 2022, the commission calculated what it would take for everyone in the world to have access to the minimum resources and services. Two months ago, it released a report on why living within planetary boundaries requires justice. The series will conclude with “The safe and just corridor,” which will address how we achieve a safe and just world.
What conclusions have you reached?
“The dimension of justice shows a much bleaker picture. We argue that the limit for justice is at 1 degree of warming, not 1.5 degrees. At 1 degree, tens of thousands to millions of people worldwide have been exposed to harm from climate change. At 1.5 degree warming that number is significantly higher. At that point, we are talking about hundreds of millions.”
Meanwhile, we are already at 1.2 degrees of warming.
“1 degree of warming is indeed no longer an achievable goal. But if you don’t take 1.5 degrees seriously, you will certainly end up higher. The literature shows that even if the climate agreements now in place are fulfilled, it will still result in 2.7 degrees of warming. We are not doing enough. With this report we are saying that we must focus on a lower goal and do everything possible not to exceed the 1.5 degree limit.
Are people in the Western world sufficiently aware of climate change?
“No, I don’t think so. We either don’t see the problems or don’t want to see them. How is that possible? Every day forest fires and extreme weather events are in the news. In Spain, in Italy, but also in the United States. The problem is that people in rich countries still live comfortable lives. But for people in poorer countries, it’s a different story.”
