UvA professor: “We’re not going to meet the Paris climate goals”
We are not going to meet the Paris climate goals, writes professor of heterogeneous catalysis and sustainable chemistry Gadi Rothenberg. For Folia, he wrote an abridged version of his article “A realistic look at CO₂ emissions, climate change and the role of sustainable chemistry” that appeared last month in the journal Sustainable Chemistry for Climate Action.
O₂ emissions are a modern problem. Before 1850, emissions came from burning traditional biomass and were only a few million tons per year. These small amounts reflected the small world population, which remained under 1.5 billion until the end of the 19th century. But in the early 20th century, everything changed. Abundant coal-based energy propelled industrialization and economic growth forward. The invention of petroleum refining around 1920 gave society access to what was practically unlimited energy at the time.
This coincided with two crucial discoveries: in 1921, Alexander Fleming in London accidentally discovered lysozyme, the first antimicrobial protein. At the same time, in Ludwigshafen, Germany, Carl Bosch and Alwin Mittasch of BASF were making ammonia, invented 10 years earlier by chemist Fritz Haber. The combination of antibiotics, fertilizer, and energy from coal and petroleum led to exponential growth in wealth and population (see figure).
Emissions
In addition to CO₂, our modern society emits other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. For the sake of simplicity, let’s say these are converted to CO₂ equivalents. In 2019, total emissions were 59 billion tons of CO₂ equivalents. This increased to more than 60 billion tons by 2022, despite a dip due to COVID-19. The CO₂ footprint of individuals in some countries is decreasing, but as the number of people increases, so do emissions worldwide.
The total of about 60 billion tons of CO₂ is divided among energy uses: agriculture, forestry, cement, steel, chemicals, and waste. Some of these emissions are unavoidable. Cement production, for example, accounts for about 4 percent of global emissions - more than all aviation and shipping combined. The process runs at high temperatures and requires a lot of energy. But even if the energy used for production were 100 percent green, making a ton of cement always releases 800 kilograms of CO₂ through the chemical reaction. In theory, this CO₂ could be captured and stored, but in practice it is too expensive.
Paris climate goals
The problem is that we cannot do without this energy. The UN's Sustainable Development Goals are laudable. Affordable and clean energy (#7), sustainable cities and communities (#11) and climate action (#13) all feature prominently in them. Moreover, sustainability goals feature prominently in the press releases of all major corporations. But how realistic are these goals? Globally, energy comes primarily from coal (25 percent), petroleum (29 percent), natural gas (23 percent) and traditional biomass (7 percent). Hydropower (7 percent) and nuclear (4 percent) make up most of the rest. Solar, wind, and geothermal power account for less than 5 percent. To achieve the Paris climate goals, we must achieve the replacement of all coal-fired power plants with zero-emission energy sources by 2030. That’s not going to happen. Even if you decided to close all coal-fired plants, a one-to-one replacement is simply impossible.
Sunlight and wind are free, but the sun doesn't shine at night and the wind doesn't blow 24/7. Replacing 1 terawatt of coal power requires 3 terawatts of wind or 7 terawatts of solar power. The numbers are not in our favor.
Long-term solution
Nearly 200 countries signed pledges and agreements at the Glasgow COP-26 meeting in 2021. This sounds impressive. But the countries that did not sign several parts include China, India, Australia, Brazil, Russia, and the U.S. - the countries where most coal is mined, the most CO₂ is emitted, and where most people live. India and China both have 1.4 billion people. Emission reductions in small countries like Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, or France will not solve the climate problem. We need to strengthen our collaboration with large countries like China, India, Brazil, and the U.S. Only in agreement with these players can a long-term solution be found.
People’s quality of life is directly related to their carbon footprint. No one denies people’s basic right to clean water, nutritious food, and education. But in today’s world, improving the quality of life of more than 2.5 billion poor people in Africa and Asia would mean more energy from coal, oil, and gas-powered plants. There is no simple solution to this problem. The polluters are not energy companies like Shell, Total, or ExxonMobil. The polluters are us: 8 billion people living on Earth, enjoying the free energy of fossil fuels.
The saying “every little bit helps” does not apply to climate change. The reality is that large-scale problems cannot be solved by small-scale actions. If all major countries decided that carbon prices should reflect the true cost of carbon emissions, things might change, but this is not going to happen. We must realize that we are not going to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement in time to combat climate change. Therefore, we must invest not only in prevention but also in adaptation to living in a world with average temperatures significantly higher than in pre-industrial times. Wake up. It’s later than you think.
A realistic look at CO₂ emissions, climate change and the role of sustainable chemistry. G. Rothenberg, Sustainable Chemistry for Climate Action, 2023.
Gadi Rothenberg is professor of heterogeneous catalysis and sustainable chemistry at the UvA.
